| 王昱政,胡樱.1992-2016年中国肾癌死亡趋势的年龄-时期-队列分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2021,42(3):508-512 |
| 1992-2016年中国肾癌死亡趋势的年龄-时期-队列分析 |
| Age-period-cohort analysis on kidney cancer mortality trend in China, 1992-2016 |
| Received:February 24, 2020 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200224-00156 |
| KeyWord: 肾癌 死亡率 年龄-时期-队列分析 |
| English Key Word: Kidney cancer Mortality Age-period-cohort analysis |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 了解1992-2016年中国肾癌死亡率的现状和长期趋势。方法 死亡率数据来自2016年全球疾病负担数据。采用由美国国立卫生研究院提供的年龄-时期-队列模型在线分析工具，对1992-2016年中国肾癌死亡数据进行分析。结果 1992-2016年，中国男性和女性的肾癌粗死亡率、标化死亡率总体均呈增加趋势，增幅均较大。男性肾癌死亡率平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）的估计值为2.85%（95%CI：2.68%~3.02%），女性肾癌死亡率AAPC的估计值为1.25%（95%CI：1.04%~1.45%）。1992-2016年男性和女性的局部漂移值均>0（均P<0.05）。就年龄效应而言，矫正了队列效应和时期效应后，自15岁起，男性和女性肾癌的死亡风险随年龄呈指数上升。从15~19岁至75~79岁年龄组的各生命阶段，每提高1个5岁年龄组，肾癌死亡的RR值男性为1.85，女性为1.59。两种性别的队列和时期效应均具有统计学意义（均P<0.05），总体及各年龄组的AAPC均有统计学意义（均P<0.05）。结论 肾癌死亡率增幅较大，对于肾癌防治应当引起足够的重视。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To evaluate the current status and long-term trend of kidney cancer mortality in China from 1992 to 2016. Methods Mortality data of kidney cancer were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016. The online analysis tool of age-period-cohort model provided by the National Institutes of Health was used to analyze the death data of kidney cancer in China from 1992 to 2016. Results From 1992 to 2016, the crude and standardized mortality rates of kidney cancer in Chinese men and women showed an overall increasing trend, with a large increase. The estimated average annual percentage change (AAPC) in kidney cancer mortality for men was 2.85% (95%CI:2.68%-3.02%) and that for women was 1.25% (95%CI:1.04%-1.45%). From 1992 to 2016, the local drift values of both men and women were greater than 0 (all P<0.05). In terms of age effect, after adjusting for cohort effect and period effect, the risk of death of kidney cancer in men and women increased exponentially with age from the age of 15. From 15 to 19 years old to 75 to 79 years old, the RR of kidney cancer death was 1.85 in male and 1.59 in female. The cohort and period effects of the two genders were statistically significant (P<0.05), the AAPC for the whole and all age groups were statistically significant (all P<0.05). Conclusion The mortality rate of kidney cancer increased greatly, and more attention should be paid to the prevention and treatment of kidney cancer. |
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