| 王晴,张婷,杨媛,陈方媛,戴佩希,贾萌萌,冷志伟,马礼兵,杨津,亓蔚然,张惺惺,慕莹,陈思雅,徐韵韶,曹琰琳,杨维中,杨涛,冯录召.新型冠状病毒肺炎大流行的实验室检测和预防控制资源需求评估[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2021,42(6):983-991 |
| 新型冠状病毒肺炎大流行的实验室检测和预防控制资源需求评估 |
| Evaluation of demand of resources for laboratory testing and prevention and control of COVID-19 in the context of global pandemic |
| Received:March 03, 2021 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20210303-00169 |
| KeyWord: 新型冠状病毒肺炎 卫生资源需求 COVID-19疫苗接种 传播动力学模型 |
| English Key Word: COVID-19 Healthcare resource demand COVID-19 vaccination Transmission dynamics models |
| FundProject:中国医学科学院医学与健康科技创新工程（2020-I2M-1-001）；比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会捐赠项目（OPP1216666） |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Wang Qing | Division of Infectious Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China | | | Zhang Ting | School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China | | | Yang Yuan | Division of Infectious Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China | | | Chen Fangyuan | School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China | | | Dai Peixi | Division of Infectious Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China | | | Jia Mengmeng | School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China | | | Leng Zhiwei | School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China | | | Ma Libing | School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China | | | Yang Jin | School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China | | | Qi Weiran | School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China | | | Zhang Xingxing | School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China | | | Mu Ying | School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China | | | Chen Siya | School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China | | | Xu Yunshao | School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China | | | Cao Yanlin | School of Public Health, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan 030012, China | | | Yang Weizhong | School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China | | | Yang Tao | Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China | 50232222@qq.com | | Feng Luzhao | Division of Infectious Diseases, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100730, China | fengluzhao@cams.cn |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 快速评估不同情景下新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）实验室检测和预防控制（防控）资源需求数，为传染病流行做好产能规划、储备分配和资金筹集方面的准备。方法 基于引入无症状感染者和确诊住院患者的易感者-潜隐者-传染者-移除者传播动力学模型，构建COVID-19不同流行情景并预测住院/隔离人数，结合当前我国防控策略，评估各情景下开展实验室检测和预防控制时所需资源数。结果 COVID-19发生社区传播及局部地区暴发且实施全员核酸检测时，我国现有实验室检测及预防控制所需医用个人防护用品及设备资源产能尚可满足需求，但人力资源储备与所需相差3.3~89.1倍不等。无症状感染者比例的增加也加剧了人力需求及防控难度。当≥50%人群获得疫苗保护时，适当调整防控措施，可降低资源需求。结论 当前我国仍亟需进行实验室检测和预防控制的人力储备，以应对难以预见的COVID-19疫情。需考究全员核酸检测对人力资源的挑战及实施的必要性。实施非药物干预措施，鼓励公众接种COVID-19疫苗，在一定程度上可缓解疾病流行带来的卫生资源需求冲击。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To rapidly evaluate the level of healthcare resource demand for laboratory testing and prevention and control of corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in different epidemic situation, and prepare for the capacity planning, stockpile distribution, and funding raising for infectious disease epidemic response. Methods An susceptible, exposed, infectious, removed infectious disease dynamics model with confirmed asymptomatic infection cases and symptomatic hospitalized patients was introduced to simulate different COVID-19 epidemic situation and predict the numbers of hospitalized or isolated patients, and based on the current COVID-19 prevention and control measures in China, the demands of resources for laboratory testing and prevention and control of COVID-19 were evaluated. Results When community or local transmission or outbreaks occur and total population nucleic acid testing is implemented, the need for human resources is 3.3-89.1 times higher than the reserved, and the current resources of medical personal protective equipment and instruments can meet the need. The surge in asymptomatic infections can also increase the human resource demand for laboratory testing and pose challenge to the prevention and control of the disease. When vaccine protection coverage reach ≥ 50%, appropriate adjustment of the prevention and control measures can reduce the need for laboratory and human resources.Conclusions There is a great need in our country to reserve the human resources for laboratory testing and disease prevention and control for the response of the possible epidemic of COVID-19. Challenges to human resources resulted from total population nucleic acid testing and its necessity need to be considered. Conducting non-pharmaceutical interventions and encouraging more people to be vaccinated can mitigate the shock on healthcare resource demand in COVID-19 prevention and control. |
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