| 陈思齐,俞敏,周脉耕,周纯良,肖义泽,黄飚,许燕君,赵亮,胡建雄,许晓君,刘涛,肖建鹏,曾韦霖,郭凌川,李杏,马文军.基于体感温度-寿命损失年暴露反应关系确定体感温度的健康风险预警阈值研究[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2021,42(8):1445-1452 |
| 基于体感温度-寿命损失年暴露反应关系确定体感温度的健康风险预警阈值研究 |
| A study on the identification of threshold for early warning on adverse weather events based on the association of apparent temperature and years of life lost |
| Received:June 25, 2020 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20200625-00884 |
| KeyWord: 体感温度 寿命损失年 回归决策树模型 气象健康风险预警 |
| English Key Word: Apparent temperature Years of life lost Regression tree model Meteorological health warning system |
| FundProject:国家重点研发计划（2018YFA0606200） |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Chen Siqi | Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health/Institute of Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China | | | Yu Min | Institute of Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310051, China | | | Zhou Maigeng | National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China | | | Zhou Chunliang | Institute of Environment and Health, Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha 450001, China | | | Xiao Yize | Institute of Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming 650022, China | | | Huang Biao | Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changchun 130062, China | | | Xu Yanjun | Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health/Institute of Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China | | | Zhao Liang | Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China | | | Hu Jianxiong | Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health/Institute of Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China | | | Xu Xiaojun | Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health/Institute of Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China | | | Liu Tao | Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health/Institute of Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China | | | Xiao Jianpeng | Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health/Institute of Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China | | | Zeng Weilin | Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health/Institute of Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China | | | Guo Lingchuan | Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health/Institute of Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China | | | Li Xing | Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health/Institute of Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China | | | Ma Wenjun | Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health/Institute of Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China | mawj@gdiph.org.cn |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 基于体感温度-寿命损失年（YLL）暴露反应关系确定体感温度的健康风险预警阈值，为气象健康预警提供科学依据。方法 收集2006-2017年全国364个区（县）逐日死亡数据和气象数据。采用分布非线性滞后模型和多变量Meta分析方法分析体感温度与YLL率的暴露反应关系。基于该暴露反应关系，采用回归决策树模型确定体感温度的健康风险预警阈值。本研究按不同死因中不同年龄组进行分层分析。结果 研究期间总人群平均每日YLL率为23.6人年/10万，日均体感温度为15.7℃。不同人群体感温度与YLL率暴露反应关系均呈"U"形曲线，由体感温度导致老年人的YLL率远远高于年轻人。日均超额死亡数也随着风险等级的升高而上升。结论 基于体感温度与YLL率的暴露反应关系，利用回归决策树模型确定体感温度的健康风险预警阈值，经验证预警效果良好。本研究为建立气象健康风险预警系统提供参考。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To identify the threshold of a health warning system based on the association of apparent temperature and years of life lost (YLL). Methods Daily mortality records and meteorological data were collected from 364 Chinese counties for 2006-2017. Distributed lag nonlinear model and multivariate Meta-analyses were applied to estimate the association between the apparent temperature and YLL rate. A regression tree model was employed to estimate the warning thresholds of the apparent temperature. Stratified analyses were further conducted by age and cause of death. Results The daily YLL rate was 23.6/105. The mean daily apparent temperature was 15.7℃. U-shaped nonlinear associations were observed between apparent temperature and YLL rate. The actual temperature-caused YLL rate for the elderly was higher than the young population. The daily excess deaths rate increased with the higher effect levels.Conclusions Regression tree model was employed to define the warning threshold for meteorological health risk. The present study provides theoretical support for the weather-related health warning system. |
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