| 李文艳,杜志成,王莹,林晓,陆龙,方强,张万方,蔡明伟,徐琳,郝元涛.新型冠状病毒Delta变异株引起的广州市荔湾区本土疫情流行特征分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2021,42(10):1763-1768 |
| 新型冠状病毒Delta变异株引起的广州市荔湾区本土疫情流行特征分析 |
| Epidemiological characteristics of local outbreak of COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant in Liwan district, Guangzhou |
| Received:June 13, 2021 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20210613-00472 |
| KeyWord: 新型冠状病毒肺炎 新型冠状病毒 B.1.617.2(Delta)变异株 流行特征 |
| English Key Word: COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2(Delta) variant Epidemiological characteristic |
| FundProject:国家自然科学基金（81773543，81973150）；广东省区域联合基金（2021A1515011591，2020A1515110230）；广东省自然科学基金（2021A1515011765） |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Li Wenyan | Division of Disease Prevention, Liwan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Guangzhou, Guangzhou 510000, China | | | Du Zhicheng | Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China | | | Wang Ying | Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China | | | Lin Xiao | Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China | | | Lu Long | Division of Disease Prevention, Liwan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Guangzhou, Guangzhou 510000, China | | | Fang Qiang | Division of Disease Prevention, Liwan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Guangzhou, Guangzhou 510000, China | | | Zhang Wanfang | Division of Disease Prevention, Liwan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Guangzhou, Guangzhou 510000, China | | | Cai Mingwei | Division of Disease Prevention, Liwan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Guangzhou, Guangzhou 510000, China | | | Xu Lin | Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China | | | Hao Yuantao | Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China | haoyt@mail.sysu.edu.cn |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 分析新型冠状病毒（新冠病毒）B.1.617.2（Delta）变异株引起的广州市荔湾区本土疫情流行特征，为Delta变异株疫情防控工作提供参考依据。方法 资料来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病报告信息管理系统和广州市荔湾区CDC，收集2021年5月21日至6月18日广州市荔湾区新冠病毒感染者（确诊病例和无症状感染者）相关信息。采用频数（构成比）、直方图、百分比堆积面积图等对本次Delta变异株疫情的流行病学特征进行描述，并应用潜伏期、动态再生系数（Rt）估计进行分析。结果 截至6月18日广州市荔湾区累计报告新冠病毒感染者127例，年龄范围2~85岁，<18、18~59和≥60岁年龄组分别占18.9%（24/127）、43.3%（55/127）和37.8%（48/127）。男女性别比为1：1.35（54：73）；职业以离退休人员32.3%（41/127）、家务及待业18.1%（23/127）和学生16.5%（21/127）为主；主要集中在荔湾区的白鹤洞街道（70.1%，89/127）与中南街道（23.6%，30/127）；Delta变异株的中位潜伏期6（范围：1~15）d；临床分型以普通型（64.6%，82/127）为主；基本再生系数（R0）=5.1，Rt先上升后下降，最高达7.3；传播方式以密闭空间为主，具有明显的家庭聚集性，主要传播场所为家庭（26.8%，34/127）、餐馆（29.1%，37/127）、小区（3.9%，5/127）和市场（3.1%，4/127）。密切接触者筛查（66.1%）和社区排查（33.1%）是发现感染者的主要途径。结论 本次疫情新冠病毒Delta变异株的传染性较强，广州市荔湾区本土疫情具有明显的家庭聚集性，新冠病毒感染者以18~59和≥60岁年龄组为主。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of a local outbreak of COVID-19 caused by SARS-CoV-2 B.1.617.2(Delta) variant in Liwan district, Guangzhou, and provide evidence for the further prevention and control of the Delta variant of COVID-19. Methods From May 21 to June 18, 2021, the incidence data of COVID-19 caused by Delta variant were obtained from National Notifiable Disease Report System of Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System and Liwan District Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Guangzhou.Frequency analysis (proportions), histograms, and percentage stacked area plots were used to describe the epidemiological characteristics of the outbreaks. The incubation period and time-varying reproduction numbers (Rt) estimations were used for the further analysis. Results By June 18, 2021, a total of 127 COVID-19 cases caused by Delta variant was reported in Liwan district. The youngest case was aged 2 years and the oldest was aged 85 years. There were 18.9% (24/127) aged <18 years, 43.3% (55/127) aged 18-59 years, and 37.8% (48/127) aged ≥ 60 years, the male to female ratio of the cases was 1:1.35 (54:73). The cases were mainly retired people (32.3%, 41/127), the jobless or unemployed (18.1%, 23/127), and students (16.5%, 21/127). The infections mainly occurred in Baihedong (70.1%, 89/127) and Zhongnan street (23.6%, 30/127) communities in the southern area of Liwan district. The median incubation period of the Delta variant infection was 6 days (range:1-15 days). The clinical classification were mainly common type (64.6%, 82/127). The basic reproduction number (R0) was 5.1, Rt which once increased to 7.3. The transmissions mainly occurred in confined spaces, such as home (26.8%), restaurant (29.1%), neighborhood (3.9%), and market (3.1%), the household clustering was predominant. Close contacts tracing (66.1%) and community screening (33.1%) were the main ways to find the infections. Conclusion The COVID-19 outbreak caused by Delta variant in Liwan district of Guangzhou was highly contagious, with the obvious characteristics of household clustering and high proportions of cases in adults aged 18-59 years and elderly people aged ≥ 60 years. |
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