天津市2000-2019年道路交通伤害死亡趋势分析

张爽; 张辉; 王卓; 王德征; 江国虹

Abstract

张爽,张辉,王卓,王德征,江国虹.天津市2000-2019年道路交通伤害死亡趋势分析[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2021,42(11):2018-2023

天津市2000-2019年道路交通伤害死亡趋势分析

Analysis on mortality trends of road traffic injury in Tianjin, 2000-2019

Received:December 24, 2020

DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20201224-01439

KeyWord: 事故,交通死亡率

English Key Word: Accident, traffic Mortality rate

FundProject:全球道路安全合作伙伴项目（RSGP-0233）

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Zhang Shuang	Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin 300011, China
Zhang Hui	Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin 300011, China
Wang Zhuo	Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin 300011, China
Wang Dezheng	Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin 300011, China
Jiang Guohong	Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin 300011, China	jiangguohongtjcdc@126.com

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Abstract:

目的分析2000-2019年天津市道路交通伤害死亡的变化趋势。方法采用天津市全人口全死因监测数据库，户籍人口数据来源于天津市公安局。分析2000-2019年天津市道路交通伤害死亡数据，计算不同性别和地区的构成比、粗死亡率、中国人口标化率和过早死亡概率。采用Joinpoint回归分析不同人群的变化趋势，计算平均年度变化百分比（AAPC）和年度变化百分比（APC）。结果 2000-2019年，天津市道路交通伤害死亡26 919例，城市男性占比从21.28%下降到18.38%，城市女性从7.01%下降到6.28%；农村男性从59.16%下降到55.59%，农村女性由12.55%上升到19.75%。2000-2019年全市道路交通伤害粗死亡率为14.08/10万~7.89/10万，标化死亡率为13.28/10万~5.51/10万，过早死亡概率为0.70%~0.38%。死亡率和过早死亡概率在研究期间先上升后下降，最后进入快速下降期。2000-2019年男性标化死亡率为20.97/10万~8.01/10万，女性为5.10/10万~2.85/10万。男性死亡水平高于女性，下降速度快于女性。2000-2019年城市标化死亡率为6.99/10万~2.46/10万，农村为19.85/10万~8.75/10万。农村死亡水平高于城市，近年来下降速度较快。农村男性是交通事故死亡水平最高的群体，从2016年起进入快速下降期，2016-2019年标化死亡率APC为-18.55%。结论全市道路交通伤害死亡水平已出现下降拐点，且近几年进入快速下降期，近年来对交通事故所开展的干预措施较为有效，未来交通事故防控的重点人群是男性、农村居民和老年人群。

English Abstract:

Objective To investigate the mortality trends of road traffic injury in Tianjin from 2000 to 2019, understand the mortality of road traffic injury in different populations and provide evidence for the prevention and control of road traffic injury. Methods Mortality data of road traffic injury in Tianjin during 2000-2019 were collected from the Population Based Mortality Surveillance System in Tianjin. Population data of permanent residents were collected from Tianjin Municipal Public Security Bureau. The crude mortality rate, the Chinese age-standardized rates, and premature mortality probability and gender and area specific constituent ratio were calculated. The trends in different populations were analyzed by using Joinpoint regression analysis. The average annual percent change (AAPC) and annual percent change (APC) were calculated. Results From 2000 to 2019, a total of 26 919 deaths due to road traffic injury occurred in Tianjin. The death constituent ratio decreased from 21.28% to 18.38% in urban males and the death constituent ratio in urban women declined from 7.01% to 6.28%. The death constituent ratio declined from 59.16% to 55.59% in rural males, whereas the death constituent ratio in rural women increased from 12.55% to 19.75%. From 2000 to 2019, the crude mortality rate of road traffic injury declined from 14.08/100 000 to 7.89/100 000, and the age-standardized mortality declined from 13.28/100 000 to 5.51/100 000. The probability of premature mortality was 0.70% in 2000 and 0.38% in 2019. The mortality rate and premature mortality probability of road traffic injury increased first, then decreased slightly and then decreased rapidly. The mortality of road traffic injury increased with age. From 2000 to 2019, the mortality of road traffic injury in males was higher than in females, but showed a rapid decline. The age-standardized mortality rate was 20.97/100 000-8.01/100 000 in males, and 5.10/100 000-2.85/100 000 in females. Compared with the urban area, the mortality rate in rural area was higher, but declined more rapidly in recent years. The age-standardized mortality rate decreased from 6.99/100 000 to 2.46/100 000 in urban area, and from 19.85/100 000 to 8.75/100 000 in rural area. As the population with the highest mortality of road traffic injury, the morality rate in males in rural area had decreased rapidly since 2016, the APC of age-standardized mortality rate from 2016 to 2019 was -18.55%. Conclusions The effect of the road safety promotion in Tianjin was significant. The mortality of road traffic injury showed a downward trend, especially in recent years. It is necessary to strengthen the prevention and control of rode traffic injury in males, rural residents and elderly people.

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