| 陈方方,汤后林,李东民,吕繁.全球及我国艾滋病疫情估计工作回顾[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2022,43(1):118-122 |
| 全球及我国艾滋病疫情估计工作回顾 |
| A review of global and domestic HIV epidemic estimation |
| Received:August 27, 2021 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20210827-00687 |
| KeyWord: 艾滋病病毒/艾滋病 疫情估计 回顾 |
| English Key Word: HIV/AIDS Epidemic estimation Review |
| FundProject: |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Chen Fangfang | Division of Epidemiology, National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China | | | Tang Houlin | Division of Epidemiology, National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China | | | Li Dongmin | Division of Epidemiology, National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China | | | Lyu Fan | Division of Epidemiology, National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China | fanlv@chinaaids.cn |
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| Abstract: |
| 由于艾滋病的隐匿性、艾滋病高危人群的特殊性、社会歧视的客观存在和艾滋病防控意识的淡薄等，使HIV感染者不易被及时检测和诊断。目前尚无法通过常规监测方法快速、准确地掌握艾滋病流行的整体情况，因此，需要通过估计和预测模型进行测量。在全球艾滋病监测领域，疫情估计始终是不可或缺的重要组成。几乎与最早发现艾滋病的时间同步，科学家们便开始了对艾滋病疫情估计和预测模型的研究。本文回顾和梳理全球和我国艾滋病疫情估计工作的发展历程，进一步理解疫情估计工作和方法变迁，为未来工作提供参考依据。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Due to the latent characteristics of HIV infection, exceptionality of HIV high-risk population, social discrimination and insufficient awareness of AIDS prevention, timely testing and diagnosis of HIV infection is still a challenge worldwide. Until recently, it is difficult to exactly understand the overall HIV epidemic only using routine surveillance data. Therefore, epidemiological and statistical modeling is widely used to address this issue. Almost at the same time when AIDS was firstly discovered firstly, scientists also began to study the methods for the estimation and prediction of HIV infection epidemic. This article summarizes the development of global and domestic HIV epidemic estimation for the further understanding of its current performance and methods applied to provide reference for the future work. |
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