中国四大慢性病死亡率可持续发展目标实现的预测研究

许晴晴; 严永富; 陈浩; 董文兰; 韩丽媛; 刘世炜

Abstract

许晴晴,严永富,陈浩,董文兰,韩丽媛,刘世炜.中国四大慢性病死亡率可持续发展目标实现的预测研究[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2022,43(6):878-884

中国四大慢性病死亡率可持续发展目标实现的预测研究

Predictions of achievement of Sustainable Development Goal to reduce age-standardized mortality rate of four major non-communicable diseases by 2030 in China

Received:October 28, 2021

DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20211028-00830

KeyWord: 慢性病年龄标化死亡率贝叶斯分析可持续发展目标

English Key Word: Chronic diseases Age-standardized death rate Bayesian analysis Sustainable development goals

FundProject:国家重点研发计划（2017YFC1310902）；国家自然科学基金面上项目（81872721，82173648）

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Xu Qingqing	Tobacco Control Office, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
Yan Yongfu	Tobacco Control Office, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
Chen Hao	Office of Policy and Planning Research, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
Dong Wenlan	National Center for Chronic and Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
Han Liyuan	Ningbo Institute of Life and Health Industry, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ningbo 315010, China Hwamei Hospital University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Ningbo 315010, China	hanliyuan@ucas.ac.cn
Liu Shiwei	Tobacco Control Office, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China	shiwei_liu@aliyun.com

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Abstract:

目的通过中国30~70岁居民1990-2019年心脑血管疾病、糖尿病、慢性呼吸系统疾病和癌症四大慢性病死亡趋势，预测2030年我国四大慢性病实现可持续发展目标（SDGs）3.4.1的情况。方法基于2019年全球疾病负担研究中国四大慢性病1990-2019年疾病负担数据，利用年龄-时期-队列的贝叶斯模型预测2020-2030年我国慢性病死亡情况及2030年SDGs 3.4.1的实现情况。结果 1990-2019年我国四大慢性病年龄标化死亡率（ASR）呈下降趋势，预测我国30~70岁居民四大慢性病死亡数将由2020年的296.12万例增加至2030年的318.50万例，ASR将由2020年的308.49/10万下降至2030年的277.80/10万，与2015年的330.46/10万相比，2030年仅下降15.94%，其中男性下降18.73%，女性下降14.31%。另外心脑血管疾病下降25.09%，癌症下降4.76%，慢性呼吸系统疾病下降37.21%，而糖尿病基本不变。结论我国30~70岁居民1990-2019年四大慢性病ASR呈下降趋势，但按目前的下降速度至2030年难以实现SDGs 3.4.1，应采取更有效措施积极应对。

English Abstract:

Objective To predicate whether China can achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 3.4.1 to reduce the age-standardized mortality rate of four major non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in residents aged 30-70 years by 2030 based on the trend of the mortality from 1990 to 2019. Methods We collected the mortality data on cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes by age, gender and year in China from the Global Disease Burden Study 2019 (GBD2019). The age-period-cohort (APC) Bayesian model was applied for modeling the age-standardized mortality rate of four major NCDs in China during 2020-2030 according to the trend of the mortality during 1990-2019, and comparing the predicted value in 2030 with the observed value in 2015 to evaluate the possibility of achieving SDGs 3.4.1.Results The age-standardized mortality rate of the four major NCDs in China showed a downward trend during 1990-2019. It is predicted that the number of death of the four NCDs in Chinese residents aged 30-70 years would increase from 2.96 million in 2020 to 3.19 million in 2030, while the age-standardized mortality rate would decrease from 308.49/100 000 in 2020 to 277.80/100 000 in 2030. The age-standardized mortality rate in 2030 would only decrease by 15.94% (18.73% for males and 14.31% for females) compared with 330.46/100 000 in 2015, with a 25.09% decrease for cardiovascular diseases, 4.76% for cancers, 37.21% for chronic respiratory diseases, and unchanged for diabetes. Conclusion Although the age-standardized mortality rate of four major NCDs declined from 1990 to 2019 in China, it is difficult to achieve the SDGs of a 1/3 mortality rate reduction by 2030 according to the current declining trend, suggesting more active and effective efforts for NCD prevention and control are needed.

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