“一带一路”沿线国家HIV/AIDS流行现状及变化趋势研究

汪亚萍; 景文展; 杜敏; 康良钰; 商伟静; 刘珏; 刘民

Abstract

汪亚萍,景文展,杜敏,康良钰,商伟静,刘珏,刘民.“一带一路”沿线国家HIV/AIDS流行现状及变化趋势研究[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2022,43(7):1053-1059

“一带一路”沿线国家HIV/AIDS流行现状及变化趋势研究

Epidemic situation of HIV/AIDS and change trend in Belt and Road countries

Received:January 26, 2022

DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20220126-00075

KeyWord: 一带一路艾滋病病毒/艾滋病发病率趋势

English Key Word: Belt and Road HIV/AIDS Incidence Trend

FundProject:国家自然科学基金(71934002,72122001)

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Wang Yaping	Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
Jing Wenzhan	Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
Du Min	Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
Kang Liangyu	Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
Shang Weijing	Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
Liu Jue	Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
Liu Min	Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China	liumin@bjmu.edu.cn

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Abstract:

目的了解“一带一路”沿线国家HIV/AIDS的流行现状及变化趋势，为防范HIV/AIDS跨境传播提供依据。方法选取与我国签署了共建“一带一路”合作文件的145个国家为本研究的“一带一路”沿线国家；145个国家2013-2019年HIV/AIDS年龄标化的发病率、患病率数据来源于2019年全球疾病负担研究。使用2019年年龄标化的发病率、患病率描述145个国家HIV/AIDS的流行现状。通过计算年估计百分比变化（EAPC），分析HIV/AIDS发病率在2013-2019年的变化趋势。结果 2019年，在非洲、亚洲、欧洲、北美洲、南美洲和大洋洲中，HIV/AIDS发病率≥40.00/10万的国家占比最高的地区是非洲，为56.86%（29/51）；最低的是亚洲，为5.41%（2/37）。145个国家中，HIV/AIDS患病率≥100.00/万的国家多数位于非洲，占20.69%（30/145）。2013-2019年，HIV/AIDS发病率呈上升趋势的国家共50个（34.48%，50/145）；呈下降趋势的国家共69个（47.59%，69/145）；无显著变化的国家共26个（17.93%，26/145）。其中发病率上升速度最快的国家是科摩罗（EAPC=15.60，95%CI：5.84~26.26），下降速度最快的国家是布隆迪（EAPC=-14.27，95%CI：-15.21~-13.31）。结论 “一带一路”沿线国家中，非洲国家HIV/AIDS疫情较严峻；部分欧洲国家HIV/AIDS发病率上升速度较快，存在跨境传播风险，未来应进一步加强我国艾滋病防控工作。

English Abstract:

Objective To understand the epidemic situation of HIV/AIDS and its change trend in the Belt and Road countries and provide evidence for the improvement of prevention and control of the cross-border transmission of HIV/AIDS. Methods The 145 countries that have signed the cooperation document of the Belt and Road initiative with China were selected in our study. Age-standardized incidence rate and prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS in the 145 countries from 2013 to 2019 were downloaded from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Age-standardized incidence rate and prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS in 2019 were used to describe the HIV/AIDS epidemics in 145 countries, and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of incidence was calculated to analyze the trend of HIV/AIDS incidence from 2013 to 2019. Results In 2019, Africa had the highest proportion of countries with HIV/AIDS incidence exceeding 40.00 per 100 000 (56.86%, 29/51), and Asia had the lowest proportion (5.41%, 2/37). The countries with the prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS exceeding 100.00 per 10 000 were almost distributed in Africa, accounting for 20.69% (30/145). From 2013 to 2019, the incidence rate of HIV/AIDS increased in 50 countries, accounting for 34.48% (50/145). The incidence rate of HIV/AIDS showed downward trends in 69 countries (47.59%, 69/145), and showed no significant change in 26 countries (17.93%, 26/145). The most obvious increase of incidence rate of HIV/AIDS was observed in Comoros (EAPC=15.60, 95%CI:5.84-26.26) and the most obvious decrease was observed in Burundi (EAPC=-14.27, 95%CI:-15.21 to -13.31). Conclusions In the Belt and Road countries, the most severe disease burden of HIV/AIDS was observed in countries in Africa, and the incidences of HIV/AIDS increased rapidly in some European countries, which means the risk of cross-border transmission still exists. Hence, the prevention and control of HIV/AIDS in China should be further strengthened in the future.

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