| 康良钰,景文展,汪亚萍,杜敏,商伟静,刘珏,刘民.“一带一路”沿线国家疟疾流行现状及变化趋势研究[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2022,43(7):1073-1078 |
| “一带一路”沿线国家疟疾流行现状及变化趋势研究 |
| Epidemic situation of malaria and change trend in Belt and Road countries |
| Received:January 25, 2022 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20220125-00074 |
| KeyWord: 一带一路 疟疾 发病率 趋势 |
| English Key Word: Belt and Road Malaria Incidence Trend |
| FundProject:国家自然科学基金(71934002,72122001) |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Kang Liangyu | Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China | | | Jing Wenzhan | Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China | | | Wang Yaping | Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China | | | Du Min | Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China | | | Shang Weijing | Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China | | | Liu Jue | Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China | | | Liu Min | Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China | liumin@bjmu.edu.cn |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 了解“一带一路”沿线国家疟疾的流行现状及变化趋势。方法 选择与我国签订共建“一带一路”合作文件的145个国家为研究对象，其疟疾发病率的数据来源于2019年全球疾病负担研究。采用2019年疟疾年龄标准化发病率描述流行现状；计算发病率的年估计百分比变化（EAPC）分析2013-2019年疟疾发病率的变化趋势。结果 在145个国家中，有疟疾流行的国家74个（51.03%），主要位于非洲（60.81%，45/74）和亚洲（22.97%，17/74）。2019年疟疾发病率≥10 000/10万的国家主要分布在非洲地区（96.15%，25/26）。2013-2019年，32个（43.24%）国家疟疾发病率呈下降趋势，23个（31.08%）国家疟疾发病率变化趋势不明显，19个（25.68%）国家疟疾发病率呈上升趋势，其中发病率上升速度最快的国家是佛得角（EAPC=151.46，95%CI：47.15~329.71）、南非（EAPC=98.61，95%CI：32.11~198.58）和纳米比亚（EAPC=78.03，95%CI：54.30~105.42）。结论 大约半数的“一带一路”沿线国家有疟疾流行，其中1/4的国家疟疾发病率呈上升趋势。我国应继续加强疟疾尤其是输入性疟疾的防控工作，以巩固消除疟疾的成果。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To understand the epidemic situation of malaria and its change trend in the Belt and Road countries. Methods The 145 countries with which China has signed cooperation documents on the Belt and Road Initiative were selected for this study, and their malaria incidence data were collected from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) was used to describe the epidemic situation of malaria in 2019. The estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of the ASR was calculated to assess the incidence trend of malaria from 2013 to 2019. Results Among the 145 countries, 74 (51.03%) countries had malaria epidemics, mainly in Africa (60.81%, 45/74) and Asia (22.97%, 17/74). The countries with malaria incidence of ≥ 10 000 per 100 000 in 2019 were mainly distributed in Africa (96.15%, 25/26). From 2013 to 2019, the incidence rates of malaria showed decreasing trends in 32 countries (43.24%), and the incidence rates of malaria in 23 countries (31.08%) showed no significant change, while the incidence rates of malaria in 19 countries (25.68%) showed increasing trends. The obvious increasing trends were observed in Cape Verde (EAPC=151.46, 95%CI:47.15-329.71), South Africa (EAPC=98.61, 95%CI:32.11-198.58) and Namibia (EAPC=78.03, 95%CI:54.30-105.42). Conclusion About half of the Belt and Road countries had malaria epidemics in 2019, in which 1/4 had increased incidence of malaria. China should continue to strengthen the prevention and control of malaria, especially imported malaria, to maintain the achievements of malaria elimination |
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