广州市2起由新型冠状病毒奥密克戎变异株引起的本地疫情流行病学参数研究

黄勇; 郑志伟; 陈纯; 李科; 陈思宇; 陈远源; 景钦隆; 马钰; 罗雷; 杨智聪; 张周斌

Abstract

黄勇,郑志伟,陈纯,李科,陈思宇,陈远源,景钦隆,马钰,罗雷,杨智聪,张周斌.广州市2起由新型冠状病毒奥密克戎变异株引起的本地疫情流行病学参数研究[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2022,43(11):1705-1710

广州市2起由新型冠状病毒奥密克戎变异株引起的本地疫情流行病学参数研究

Epidemiological characteristics of two local COVID-19 outbreaks caused by 2019-nCoV Omicron variant in Guangzhou, China

Received:May 23, 2022

DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20220523-00450

KeyWord: 新型冠状病毒奥密克戎变异株潜伏期序列间隔基本再生数

English Key Word: 2019-nCoV Omicron variant Incubation period Serial interval Basic reproductive number

FundProject:广州市医学重点学科（2021-2023-11）；广州市卫生健康科技项目（20211A011051，20211A010045）

Author Name	Affiliation	E-mail
Huang Yong	Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou 510440, China
Zheng Zhiwei	Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China
Chen Chun	Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China
Li Ke	Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China
Chen Siyu	Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China
Chen Yuanyuan	Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China
Jing Qinlong	Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou 510440, China
Ma Yu	Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou 510440, China
Luo Lei	Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou 510440, China
Yang Zhicong	Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China
Zhang Zhoubin	Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou 510440, China	gzcdc_zhangzb@gz.gov.cn

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Abstract:

目的本研究旨在估计广州市2起由新型冠状病毒（新冠病毒）奥密克戎变异株（BA.2）引起的本地疫情的潜伏期、序列间隔和基本再生数（R₀）等流行病学参数，探索不同场所聚集性对R₀的影响，为奥密克戎变异株疫情防控提供科学依据。方法收集2022年4-5月广州市2起新冠病毒奥密克戎变异株本地疫情病例数据，使用Weibull、Gamma和lognormal分布对奥密克戎变异株本地疫情的潜伏期、序列间隔分布进行估计，采用指数增长法和极大似然法估计R₀。结果两起疫情中位潜伏期为2.94（95%CI：2.52~3.38）d；中位序列间隔为3.32（95%CI：2.89~3.81）d。小型场所聚集性疫情R₀为4.40（95%CI：3.95~4.85），机场聚集性疫情R₀为11.35（95%CI：11.02~11.67）。结论广州市2起由新冠病毒奥密克戎变异株引起的本地疫情潜伏期较德尔塔变异株明显缩短。场所聚集程度越高，R₀越大，传播速度越快，易呈现暴发疫情，应及时调整防控策略。

English Abstract:

Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of two local COVID-19 outbreaks caused by 2019-nCoV Omicron variant in Guangzhou, such as incubation period, serial interval, basic reproductive number (R₀) and the influence of gathering places on R₀, and provide evidence for the prevention and control of Omicron variant infection. Methods The data of daily confirmed cases of Omicron variant infection from April 8 to May 8, 2022 in two COVID-19 outbreaks in Guangzhou were collected for model fitting. Weibull, Gamma and lognormal distribution were used to estimate incubation period and serial interval. Exponential growth method and the maximum likelihood estimation were used to estimate R₀. Results The median of incubation period was 2.94 (95%CI:2.52-3.38) days and median of serial interval was 3.32 (95%CI:2.89-3.81) days. The estimated R₀ in small-size place was 4.40 (95%CI:3.95-4.85), while the estimated R₀ at airport was 11.35 (95%CI:11.02-11.67). Conclusion The incubation period of Omicron variant in two local COVID-19 outbreaks in Guangzhou is significantly shorter than that of delta variant. The higher the gathering degree in a place, the larger the R₀. Due to its rapid transmission, COVID-19 epidemic is prone to occur. Therefore, the COVID-19 prevention and control strategy should be dynamically adjusted in time.

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