| 王鑫钰,张梦迪,朱文龙,刘芷希,王伟炳.疫情防控策略优化后上海市新型冠状病毒感染疫情的预测和估计[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2023,44(4):552-560 |
| 疫情防控策略优化后上海市新型冠状病毒感染疫情的预测和估计 |
| Estimation of COVID-19 incidence in Shanghai under optimized epidemic prevention and control strategies |
| Received:December 08, 2022 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20221208-01051 |
| KeyWord: 新型冠状病毒感染 新型冠状病毒 传播动力学 数学模型 预测 |
| English Key Word: COVID-19 2019-nCoV Transmission dynamics Mathematical model Estimation |
| FundProject:国家自然科学基金（82073612） |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Wang Xinyu | Department of Epidemiology, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China | | | Zhang Mengdi | Office of Epidemiology, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China | | | Zhu Wenlong | Department of Epidemiology, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China | | | Liu Zhixi | Department of Epidemiology, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China | | | Wang Weibing | Department of Epidemiology, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of Ministry of Education, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China | wwb@fudan.edu.cn |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 量化预测在不同场景下上海市新型冠状病毒（新冠病毒）感染疫情的发展规模和医疗卫生资源需求，模拟评估新冠病毒疫苗接种情况、非药物干预措施（NPIs）、居家隔离意愿和入境情况等因素对新冠病毒感染疫情发展规模的影响。方法 基于新冠病毒的自然史、上海市新冠病毒疫苗接种情况和NPIs情况构建具有年龄结构的SEIR传染病动力学模型（SEIR模型），以2022年12月1日作为模型模拟起点的当日实际情况，对疫情发展规模和床位需求情况进行模拟估计。结果 上海市在新冠病毒疫苗接种的实际情况下，100 d的模拟期内累计有住院需求的感染人数为18.02万。相比于新冠病毒疫苗接种的实际情况，当人群加强针接种率达到理想情况时，累计有住院需求的感染人数下降73.20%，与不实施NPIs相比，仅关闭学校、关闭学校和工作场所的措施对普通床位需求数的峰值分别降低24.04%、37.73%，感染者居家隔离意愿的提高可降低每日新增感染人数并推迟峰值出现时间，入境人数的变化对于疫情发展规模的影响较小。结论 上海市在新冠病毒感染的流行特征和新冠病毒疫苗接种的实际情况下，可通过提高新冠病毒疫苗接种率、尽早实施NPIs以降低新冠病毒感染人数、普通床位和重症加强护理病房床位需求数，从而缓解卫生资源需求。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To quantitatively estimate the incidence of COVID-19 in different backgrounds, including vaccination coverage, non-pharmacological interventions (NPIs) measures, home quarantine willingness and international arrivals, and the demands of healthcare resource in Shanghai in the context of optimized epidemic prevention and control strategies. Methods Based on the natural history of 2019-nCoV, local vaccination coverage and NPI performance, an age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Infections-Removed (SEIR) epidemic dynamic model was established for the estimation of the incidence of COVID-19 and demand of hospital beds in Shanghai by using the data on December 1, 2022 as the basis. Results Based on current vaccination coverage, it is estimated that 180 184 COVID-19 cases would need treatment in hospitals in Shanghai within 100 days. When the booster vaccination coverage reaches an ideal level, the number of the cases needing hospitalization would decrease by 73.20%. School closure or school closure plus workplace closure could reduce the peak demand of regular beds by 24.04% or 37.73%, respectively, compared with the situation without NPI. Increased willingness of home quarantine could reduce the number of daily new cases and delay incidence peak of COVID-19. The number of international arrivals has little impact on the development of the epidemic. Conclusions According to the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 and the actual situation of vaccination in Shanghai, the incidence of COVID-19 and health resource demand might be reduced by increasing vaccination coverage and early implementation of NPI. |
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