| 李政,方乐天,胡明,曾慧娴,陈宏森,谭晓㛃.2006-2021年中国居民结核病死亡情况的流行特征分析与预测[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2024,45(6):824-832 |
| 2006-2021年中国居民结核病死亡情况的流行特征分析与预测 |
| Analysis and prediction of epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis deaths among Chinese residents from 2006 to 2021 |
| Received:November 14, 2023 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20231114-00286 |
| KeyWord: 结核病 死亡率 趋势分析 中国居民 灰色模型 |
| English Key Word: Tuberculosis Mortality Trend analysis Chinese residents Grey model |
| FundProject:国家重点研发计划（2022YFC2602905）；上海市加强公共卫生体系建设三年行动计划重点学科（GWVI-11.1-10） |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Li Zheng | Department of Naval Epidemiology, Faculty of Naval Medicine, Naval Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China
Shanghai Key Laboratory of Medical Bioprotection, Shanghai 200433, China
Key Laboratory of Biosecurity Defense, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 200433, China | | | Fang Letian | Department of Naval Epidemiology, Faculty of Naval Medicine, Naval Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China
Shanghai Key Laboratory of Medical Bioprotection, Shanghai 200433, China
Key Laboratory of Biosecurity Defense, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 200433, China | | | Hu Ming | Department of Naval Epidemiology, Faculty of Naval Medicine, Naval Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China
Shanghai Key Laboratory of Medical Bioprotection, Shanghai 200433, China
Key Laboratory of Biosecurity Defense, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 200433, China | | | Zeng Huixian | Department of Epidemiology, School of Medicine, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China | | | Chen Hongsen | Department of Naval Epidemiology, Faculty of Naval Medicine, Naval Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China
Shanghai Key Laboratory of Medical Bioprotection, Shanghai 200433, China
Key Laboratory of Biosecurity Defense, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 200433, China | | | Tan Xiaojie | Department of Naval Epidemiology, Faculty of Naval Medicine, Naval Medical University, Shanghai 200433, China
Shanghai Key Laboratory of Medical Bioprotection, Shanghai 200433, China
Key Laboratory of Biosecurity Defense, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 200433, China | xjtan2020@smmu.edu.cn |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 分析2006-2021年中国居民结核病死亡情况的流行病学特征，并对2022- 2027年的结核病死亡率进行预测，为开展我国结核病防控工作提供参考依据。方法 收集来自中国CDC定期公开发表的2006-2021年结核病死亡病例数据集，并依照中国2000年的人口结构进行年龄标化，计算结核病粗死亡率（CMR）和年龄标化死亡率（ASMR），分析结核病死亡病例年龄、性别、地区和时间的分布特征，采用Joinpoint回归分析模型分析变化趋势，并应用灰色模型预测2022-2027年的结核病CMR和ASMR。结果 中国居民总人群、男女性、城乡、各年龄段（除年龄≥85岁组死亡率下降趋势不显著外）、东中西部地区2006-2021年结核病CMR和ASMR均呈下降趋势。男性CMR和ASMR均高于女性。城市CMR和ASMR均低于农村。结核病患者年龄越大，死亡率越高。CMR和ASMR西部均高于东部和中部，东部低于中部，但差距较小。东部城市ASMR低于中部城市和西部城市，中部城市在2006-2009年和2012年高于西部城市，其他年份均低于西部城市；西部农村ASMR高于东部农村和中部农村，东部农村低于中部农村，但差距较小。灰色模型预测结果显示，中国居民2022-2027年结核病CMR（/10万）分别为1.585、1.471、1.360、1.250、1.143和1.038，ASMR（/10万）分别为0.779、0.653、0.531、0.411、0.295和0.181。结论 中国居民2006-2021年及预测2022-2027年结核病CMR和ASMR均持续下降，结核病防治取得了较大的成就。未来工作应重点加强农村、西部地区、男性、老年人口的结核病筛查和治疗，有针对性地制定防控措施，降低死亡率。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective The epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis deaths among Chinese residents from 2006 to 2021 were analyzed, and the tuberculosis mortality rate from 2022 to 2027 was predicted to provide a reference for tuberculosis prevention and control in China. Methods The data set of tuberculosis deaths from 2006 to 2021 was published regularly by the China CDC, and the crude mortality rate (CMR) and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated according to the population structure of China in 2000. The distribution characteristics of age, sex, region, and time of tuberculosis deaths were analyzed, the Joinpoint regression analysis model was used to analyze the changing trend, and the grey model was applied to predict CMR and ASMR from 2022 to 2027. Results From 2006 to 2021, the CMR and ASMR of tuberculosis showed a downward trend among males and females, urban and rural areas, and all age groups, in a word, all the Chinese residents. Except for the age group ≥85 years old, the mortality trend was insignificant. In the eastern, central, or western regions. CMR and ASMR were significantly higher in males than in females.CMR and ASMR were significantly lower in urban areas than in rural areas. In general, active tuberculosis patients present a higher mortality rate. The CMR and ASMR in the western region were higher than those in the eastern and central regions and lower in the eastern region than in the central region, but the differences were less obvious. The ASMR of the eastern cities was lower than that of the central and western regions, and the ASMR of the central cities was higher than that of the western region from 2006 to 2009 and 2012 and lower than that of the western region in other years. The ASMR in the western countryside was higher than that in the eastern and central regions and lower in the eastern part than in the central region, but the difference was not obvious. The grey model prediction results show that the CMR (/100 000) of Chinese residents from 2022 to 2027 is 1.585, 1.471, 1.360, 1.250, 1.143, and 1.038, and the ASMR (/100 000) is 0.779, 0.653, 0.531, 0.411, 0.295 and 0.181, respectively. Conclusions The CMR and ASMR of tuberculosis will continue to decline, and extraordinary achievements have been made in tuberculosis prevention and control in Chinese residents from 2006 to 2021 and, presumably, from 2022 to 2027. However, tuberculosis screening and treatment programs in the western region, men, the elderly population, and rural areas should be further strengthened, and targeted prevention and control measures should be formulated to reduce mortality. |
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