| 李正雄,蒋东霞,俞浩,韩仁强,郭剑辉,李晶,周金意,黄少丹.极端气温事件对江苏省居民神经系统疾病死亡风险的影响[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2024,45(11):1544-1549 |
| 极端气温事件对江苏省居民神经系统疾病死亡风险的影响 |
| Mortality risk of nervous system disease attributed to extreme temperature events in Jiangsu Province |
| Received:May 20, 2024 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240520-00290 |
| KeyWord: 热浪 寒潮 神经系统疾病 死亡风险 婚姻状况 |
| English Key Word: Heat wave Cold spell Nervous system disease Mortality risk Marital status |
| FundProject:国家自然科学基金（52208092，721990083） |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Li Zhengxiong | Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China | | | Jiang Dongxia | Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China | | | Yu Hao | Department of Chronic Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210009, China | | | Han Renqiang | Department of Chronic Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210009, China | | | Guo Jianhui | Institute of Child and Adolescent Health, Peking University/School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China | | | Li Jing | Institute of Child and Adolescent Health, Peking University/School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China | | | Zhou Jinyi | Department of Chronic Non-communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210009, China | zhoujinyi74@sina.com | | Huang Shaodan | Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases (Peking University), Ministry of Education, Beijing 100191, China | shhuang@bjmu.edu.cn |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 分析极端气温事件对江苏省居民神经系统疾病死亡风险的影响，并探索神经系统疾病患者中对极端气温事件敏感的人群。方法 基于2014-2020年江苏省居民神经系统疾病死因数据，采用病例交叉设计的方法，利用条件logistic回归模型分析极端气温事件对江苏省居民神经系统疾病死亡风险的累计滞后效应。模型中通过赤池信息准则确定最终采用的极端气温事件定义，热浪定义为连续≥4 d的日平均气温≥温暖季节日平均气温的92.5th，采用的寒潮定义为连续≥2 d的日平均气温≤寒冷季节日平均气温的10th。比较极端气温事件对不同性别、年龄、婚姻状况人群神经系统疾病死亡风险的影响以探索极端气温的敏感人群。结果 热浪、寒潮对总神经系统疾病死亡风险的效应值均在累计滞后7 d达到峰值，OR值分别为1.60（95%CI： 1.44~1.76）、1.33（95%CI： 1.13~1.56）。热浪暴露会引起阿尔茨海默病、帕金森病人群的死亡风险增加，寒潮暴露会引起阿尔茨海默病人群死亡风险增加。分层结果表明，无伴侣人群暴露于热浪时，总神经系统疾病及阿尔茨海默病死亡风险更高。结论 热浪、寒潮均会增加人群神经系统疾病死亡风险，需加强对极端气温事件的预警工作。在热浪天气下，针对神经系统疾病人群的干预保护措施应重点关注无伴侣的人群。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To assess the influence of extreme temperature events on the mortality risk of nervous system diseases in residents of Jiangsu Province and identify patients with nervous system diseases who are susceptible to extreme temperature events. Methods Acase-crossover design was used to investigate the cumulative lagged effects of extreme temperature events on the mortality risk of nervous system disease in local residents by using the data on causes of death from nervous system diseases in Jiangsu from 2014 to 2020 with conditional logistic regression model. The final definition of extreme temperature events was established using Akaike information criterion. The heat wave was defined as 4 or more consecutive days with daily mean temperatures above the 92.5th percentile of annual daily mean temperatures, and the cold spell was defined as 2 or more consecutive days with daily mean temperatures below the 10th percentile of annual daily mean temperatures. Furthermore, stratified analyses was conducted to compare the effects of extreme temperature events on mortality risk in populations in different gender, age and marital status groups to identify susceptible populations to extreme temperature event. Results Statistical results showed that the effect values of heat wave and cold spell on the mortality risk of nervous system diseases all peaked at the 7th day of the cumulative lag, with OR of 1.60 (95%CI: 1.44-1.76) and 1.33 (95%CI: 1.13-1.56), respectively. Heat wave exposure increased mortality risk for individuals with Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases, while cold spell exposure increased the mortality risk for those with Alzheimer's disease. Stratified analyses showed that the mortality risk for nervous system disease and Alzheimer's disease was higher in partnerless population after heat wave exposure.Conclusions Heat wave and cold spell were associated with increased mortality risks for nervous system disease, highlighting the need for improved early warning systems for extreme temperature event. In the context of heat wave, interventions to protect individuals with nervous system disease should prioritize partnerless population. |
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