| 席俊彦,明睿琦,王奕婧,付英斌,张振,张佳,白建军,向钇凝,林晓,顾菁,郝元涛,刘刚.深圳市2016-2030年55岁及以上中老年人群的疾病负担现况和预测[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2024,45(11):1550-1558 |
| 深圳市2016-2030年55岁及以上中老年人群的疾病负担现况和预测 |
| Current and predicted disease burden in middle aged and elderly population aged 55 years and above in Shenzhen, 2016-2030 |
| Received:June 06, 2024 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20240606-00334 |
| KeyWord: 健康老龄化 疾病负担 时间趋势 贝叶斯 灰色系统 预测模型 |
| English Key Word: Healthy aging Burden of disease Time trend Bayesian Grey system Prediction model |
| FundProject:深圳市“医疗卫生三名工程”（SZSM202311001）；国家重点研发计划（2022YFC3600804）；国家自然科学基金（82373684，82204154） |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Xi Junyan | Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
Center for Health Information Research, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China | | | Ming Ruiqi | School of Public Health, Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan 523808, China
Department of Operations Management (Department of Primary Public Health Promotion), Shenzhen Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen 518055, China | | | Wang Yijing | Department of Operations Management (Department of Primary Public Health Promotion), Shenzhen Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen 518055, China | | | Fu Yingbin | Department of Operations Management (Department of Primary Public Health Promotion), Shenzhen Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen 518055, China | | | Zhang Zhen | Institute for Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen 518055, China | | | Zhang Jia | Institute for Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen 518055, China | | | Bai Jianjun | Peking University Center for Public Health and Epidemic Preparedness & Response, Beijing 100191, China
Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases (Peking University), Ministry of Education, Beijing 100191, China | | | Xiang Yining | Peking University Center for Public Health and Epidemic Preparedness & Response, Beijing 100191, China
Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases (Peking University), Ministry of Education, Beijing 100191, China | | | Lin Xiao | Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
Center for Health Information Research, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China | | | Gu Jing | Department of Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
Global Health Institute, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China
Center for Health Information Research, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China | | | Hao Yuantao | Peking University Center for Public Health and Epidemic Preparedness & Response, Beijing 100191, China
Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
Key Laboratory of Epidemiology of Major Diseases (Peking University), Ministry of Education, Beijing 100191, China | | | Liu Gang | Department of Operations Management (Department of Primary Public Health Promotion), Shenzhen Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen 518055, China | sliugang@163.com |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 分析2016-2030年深圳市≥55岁中老年人群的疾病负担，为制定健康老龄化策略提供循证依据。方法 测算2016-2022年早死损失寿命年（YLL）、伤残损失寿命年（YLD）和伤残调整寿命年（DALY），采用Joinpoint对数线性回归模型检验时间趋势。综合使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型和灰色系统模型预测2030年的YLL、YLD和DALY。结果 2016-2022年，DALY粗率在55~74岁呈短期波动，在≥85岁显著升高；各年龄段的非传染性疾病YLL和YLD比例远大于传染性疾病/营养疾病以及伤害。2022年，各年龄段的YLL顺位第1位分别为肿瘤（55~74岁）和心血管疾病（≥75岁），YLD顺位第1位均为肌肉骨骼疾病。至2030年，各年龄组的YLL和YLD顺位第1位不变，部分疾病或伤害的负担顺位上升。结论 深圳市≥55岁各年龄段的疾病负担现况和预测具有不同的特点，应根据相应的疾病负担模式合理分配社会及医疗资源。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To analyze the disease burden in middle-aged and elderly population aged ≥55 in Shenzhen from 2016 to 2030 and provide evidence for the development of healthy aging strategies. Methods The years of life lost (YLL), years lost due to disability (YLD), and the disability-adjusted life year (DALY) in this population from 2016 to 2022 were calculated. Joinpoint log-linear regression model was used to analyze the time trend. Bayesian age-period-cohort model and grey system model were used to predict YLL, YLD, and DALY in this population in 2030. Results From 2016 to 2022, the crude DALY rate showed a transient fluctuation in age group 55-74 years, but a pronounced increase in age group ≥85 years. The proportions of YLL and YLD due to non-communicable diseases in all age groups was considerably higher than those due to communicable and nutritional diseases and injuries. In 2022, in all age groups, the YLL due to neoplasms (55-74 years old) and cardiovascular disease (≥75 years old) ranked first, and the YLD due to musculoskeletal disorder ranked first. By 2030, the causes of YLL and YLD ranking first in each age group would be remained, while the ranks of some causes would increase. Conclusions The age specific characteristics of current and predicted disease burden differed in individuals aged ≥55 years. Therefore, it is necessary to allocate social and medical resources according to the disease burden pattern. |
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