| 罗成,李润滋,许勤勤,熊萍,刘言训,薛付忠,许青,李秀君.状态空间模型在流行性腮腺炎防控评价中的应用[J].Chinese journal of Epidemiology,2017,38(9):1218-1221 |
| 状态空间模型在流行性腮腺炎防控评价中的应用 |
| Application of State Space model in the evaluation of the prevention and control for mumps |
| Received:November 25, 2016 |
| DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2017.09.015 |
| KeyWord: 状态空间模型 基础再生数 流行性腮腺炎 |
| English Key Word: Space-state model Basic reproduction number Mumps |
| FundProject:山东省科技发展计划（2014GGH218019）；国家自然科学基金（81673238）；山东省泰山学者岗位支持 |
| Author Name | Affiliation | E-mail | | Luo Cheng | Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China | | | Li Runzi | Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China | | | Xu Qinqin | Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China | | | Xiong Ping | Shandong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, China | | | Liu Yanxun | Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China | | | Xue Fuzhong | Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China | | | Xu Qing | Shandong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, China | xqepi@163.com | | Li Xiujun | Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shandong University, Jinan 250012, China | xjli@sdu.edu.cn |
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| Abstract: |
| 目的 分析2012年和2014年流行性腮腺炎（腮腺炎）流行特征，探讨山东省2剂次含腮腺炎成分疫苗（MuCV）接种的预防效果。方法 在一定模型假定基础上，结合相关文献设置合理参数，构建状态空间模型，利用迭代滤波对模型进行参数估计。结果 2012年和2014年托幼及学生人群基础再生数（R0）分别为4.49（95%CI：4.30~4.67）和2.50（95%CI：2.38~2.61）。结论 状态空间模型能够很好地描述腮腺炎传播过程；山东省实行2剂MuCV能够有效降低腮腺炎在人群中的传播；托幼和学生是实现腮腺炎进一步控制的重要人群，应进一步提高2剂次MuCV接种率。 |
| English Abstract: |
| Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of mumps in 2012 and 2014, and to explore the preventive effect of the second dose of mumps-containing vaccine (MuCV) in mumps in Shandong province. Methods On the basis of certain model assumptions, a Space State model was formulated. Iterated Filter was applied to the epidemic model to estimate the parameters. Results The basic reproduction number (R0) for children in schools was 4.49 (95%CI:4.30-4.67) and 2.50 (95%CI:2.38-2.61) respectively for the year of 2012 and 2014. Conclusions Space State model seems suitable for mumps prevalence description. The policy of 2-dose MuCV can effectively reduce the number of total patients. Children in schools are the key to reduce the mumps. |
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